There are pundits in every field. These so called druids are capable of telling what is next - whether its technology or the stock market or the medical inventions or the state of the economy or that of the Euro Zone. One thing that tends to be consistent is that people assume age affords wisdom and thence the pundit tend to be of advanced age.
Nothing could be further from the truth. I think that any of the forecasters including the weatherman are merely taking a chance on what appears to be the most obvious and some deciding to be a contrarian take the opposite view. What then is consistent many times is that these all tend to be people of advanced age. If they are wrong they are never going to be around to see the consequences. So what the heck go ahead and forecast.
Or they are themselves so well off that their actual decision making is of no material consequence to their own security. Take Ron Johnson's foray to change the face of JCPenney - an ancient retail institution in America that frankly was one too many to begin with what with more clothes than people 100 times over. Do we really need so many people selling shirts? No matter. He gets paid more than there are shirts in America, and gets to experiment on someone else's dime to change the way they want to sell those excess shirts.
Result - a disaster in their books and after couple years of blowing smoke and forecasts he is asked to leave. Many a consultants also got their laundry washed in this machine while it was running. End of day - the most obvious happens - or will happen - in the next few years JCPenney and its similar retail brethren like the Best Buys and Home Depots will vanish as they came.. in a series of 'I told you so' forecasts.
This autumn the weather gods cooperated as we took a family trip in the northeast to see six states that qualify or makeup what is known colloquially in America as New England. Mass, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut and Rhode Island (tiniest state in the union). The outing helped tally up the states we either lived in, visited or have worked in to 47. Guess which three have eluded this intrepid traveling family. Any rate the drive was all in about 1,800 miles and included some memorable geographic wonders or points of interest. Easternmost part of state of Massachusetts being one. Furthest drivable road east in Mass being another. Visit to all Ivy League schools (term harkens to a collegiate athletics conference and generally regarded as elite academic institutes of some repute worldwide) is another random bucket list item of which this trip afforded the chance to knock two more of the list. Dartmouth in Hanover, NH and Brown (and its sister institute the RISD - school f
The 'die' is cast..how's that for a summary of the events to come?
ReplyDeleteIndeed it is - Things will either get worse or improve for sure.
ReplyDelete