Skip to main content

Art of the forecast

There are pundits in every field. These so called druids are capable of telling what is next - whether its technology or the stock market or the medical inventions or the state of the economy or that of the Euro Zone. One thing that tends to be consistent is that people assume age affords wisdom and thence the pundit tend to be of advanced age. Nothing could be further from the truth. I think that any of the forecasters including the weatherman are merely taking a chance on what appears to be the most obvious and some deciding to be a contrarian take the opposite view. What then is consistent many times is that these all tend to be people of advanced age. If they are wrong they are never going to be around to see the consequences. So what the heck go ahead and forecast. Or they are themselves so well off that their actual decision making is of no material consequence to their own security. Take Ron Johnson's foray to change the face of JCPenney - an ancient retail institution in America that frankly was one too many to begin with what with more clothes than people 100 times over. Do we really need so many people selling shirts? No matter. He gets paid more than there are shirts in America, and gets to experiment on someone else's dime to change the way they want to sell those excess shirts. Result - a disaster in their books and after couple years of blowing smoke and forecasts he is asked to leave. Many a consultants also got their laundry washed in this machine while it was running. End of day - the most obvious happens - or will happen - in the next few years JCPenney and its similar retail brethren like the Best Buys and Home Depots will vanish as they came.. in a series of 'I told you so' forecasts.

Comments

  1. The 'die' is cast..how's that for a summary of the events to come?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Indeed it is - Things will either get worse or improve for sure.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Of Jims and Johns

Here is another essay on the subject of first names. As in birth names. Or names provided to an offspring at birth. While the developed world tends to shy away from the exotic like Refrigerator or Coca Cola for their new production there is a plethora of Jims and Johns and Bobs or Robs. Speaking of which I do not think there is a categoric decision point at the time of birth if a child will be hereafter called as Bob. I mean have not yet met a toddler called Bob or Rob for that matter. At some point though the parental instinct to mouth out multiple syllables runs out and they switch from calling the crawler Robert to simply Robbie to Rob. Now speaking of - it is strange that the name sounds like something you would not want Rob to do - i.e. Rob anyone. Then why call someone that? After all Rob Peter to Pay Paul is not exactly a maxim to live a young life? Is it? Perhaps Peter or Paul might want to have a say in it? Then there is this matter of going to the John. Why degrad...

But What If We're Wrong?

I attempted to read this book by author Chuck Klosterman backward to forward but it started hurting my brain so I decided to stop and do it like any other publication in the English language.  Start from page 1 and move to the right. Witty, caustic and thought provoking this is a book you want to read if you believe that the status quo might, just might be wrong. At times bordering on being contrarian about most things around us it tries to zero in on the notion of what makes anything believable and certain in our minds.  The fact that there is a fact itself is ironic.  Something analogous to the idea that you can never predict the future because there is no future. Many books and movies have tried to play on this concept - best that I recollect (I think I am) was 'The Truman Show'.  This book by Klosterman attempts to provoke the reader to at least contemplate that what they think they know may be wrong. He uses examples like concept of gravity, and how it ...

Presumptive Society

Today's world is hyper connected.  I am not so sure what it means but you hear it a lot.  It is probably hyper but not sure how connected it is.  Sugar (fermented or not) is available in many ways than before and so getting hyper is easy.  It is probably more a threat than cocaine since it is sold legally. And what is this connected stuff?  Most people I encounter seem disconnected from reality.  So going back to this assumption that we are connected there are subtle and no so subtle instances of how brands and companies and middle men try to portray someone - A linkedin profile for somebody working for X years at a place advertises to the connected network that so and so is CELEBRATING X years @ Such and Such Inc. Do we know if (s)he is celebrating or cringing?  Perhaps a better way to portray will be - So and So LASTED X years @ such & such inc. Then it exhorts the readership to go ahead and congratulate them for this lasting effe...