Skip to main content

Art of the forecast

There are pundits in every field. These so called druids are capable of telling what is next - whether its technology or the stock market or the medical inventions or the state of the economy or that of the Euro Zone. One thing that tends to be consistent is that people assume age affords wisdom and thence the pundit tend to be of advanced age. Nothing could be further from the truth. I think that any of the forecasters including the weatherman are merely taking a chance on what appears to be the most obvious and some deciding to be a contrarian take the opposite view. What then is consistent many times is that these all tend to be people of advanced age. If they are wrong they are never going to be around to see the consequences. So what the heck go ahead and forecast. Or they are themselves so well off that their actual decision making is of no material consequence to their own security. Take Ron Johnson's foray to change the face of JCPenney - an ancient retail institution in America that frankly was one too many to begin with what with more clothes than people 100 times over. Do we really need so many people selling shirts? No matter. He gets paid more than there are shirts in America, and gets to experiment on someone else's dime to change the way they want to sell those excess shirts. Result - a disaster in their books and after couple years of blowing smoke and forecasts he is asked to leave. Many a consultants also got their laundry washed in this machine while it was running. End of day - the most obvious happens - or will happen - in the next few years JCPenney and its similar retail brethren like the Best Buys and Home Depots will vanish as they came.. in a series of 'I told you so' forecasts.

Comments

  1. The 'die' is cast..how's that for a summary of the events to come?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Indeed it is - Things will either get worse or improve for sure.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Of chocolates

I like chocolates. Godiva Dark with Almonds - not sure of the naked woman on the horse to be the icon of some choice cocoa based products but tastes good. Started in Belgium but now owned by some Turks. Cadburys - Fruit and Nut Milk Bars - awesome combination of dried fruit pieces along with a medley of nuts makes your toungue dance - started by a Brit now owen by Kraft USA. Lindt Hazelnut spheres - made by a Swiss confectioner are divine balls that melt in your mouth with a lingering nutty taste Ghirardelli Milk Crisp Squares - crunchy and light these milk squares are easy on the palate but pack some serious calories - all good I say! Originally founded by an Italian who moved around till he landed in SF Bay today also owned by the Swiss Lindt empire.

Columbia SC

 The Palmetto state.  One of the confederate kinds. History dating couple centuries back.  We visited the capital yet again this time to take in the SC State Museum. Occupying the former digs (literally remodeled) of an erstwhile cotton mill this structure is an amazing piece of reimagination.  Four floors of excitement for kids and young at heart alike. Located on the shores of the Congaree River formed when the Broad meets up with the Saluda River, this edifice is approx. 60 years old.  The front of the building has a more modern planetarium that was added about a decade ago.  The museum itself has different areas of interest segregated on each of its four floors. The first floor has gift shop and a diorama of some of the local geography including the swamps and the state beaches with audio guides to help understand what fauna thrives locally. The second floor is all about natural history and showcases animal kingdom that may have survived on this latitud...

Gab about Gaps

There are a number of news stories these days where conversation inevitably turns to discussing some sort of GAP - Gap between rich and poor is growing Gap is losing market share to other clothiers The Dow is Gapping Down (so is the NASDAQ) and the dollar is Gapping Up The guy who advised British public over the PA on dangers of tube travel with the phrase 'MIND THE GAP' has died There is a frightening Gap between our Debts and Savings Gap between Executive pay and Average worker salary is at an all time high All I am doing is listening to all this unfold with my mouth aGAPe. What me worry?